$5.33 US a gallon for 94

"CarsofFortLangley - Oppo Forever" (carsoffortlangley) 04/27/2018 at 15:42 • Filed to: VancityOppo

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70

$4.69US for regular. But 22 miles away, at Chevron in the US, gas is $3.29 a gallon for regular. At this point, I am resigned to just sitting behind the wheel of my cars going “vroom, vroom” in my garage.

On the bright side, my wife got a job. On the downside, we probably need 4th car.

!!! UNKNOWN CONTENT TYPE !!!

Wacko > CarsofFortLangley - Oppo Forever 04/27/2018 at 15:49

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CarsofFortLangley - Oppo Forever > Wacko 04/27/2018 at 15:50

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Woo! the sounds of summer 2018!

vicali > CarsofFortLangley - Oppo Forever 04/27/2018 at 15:52

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Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > CarsofFortLangley - Oppo Forever 04/27/2018 at 15:53

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$5.33 * 0.78 = $4.15 (Today’s exchange rate against the Loonie) and the max octane in the US is 93 — assuming the same (r + m)/2 rating — so that’s really not so far apart.

TeamPunkassRacing > CarsofFortLangley - Oppo Forever 04/27/2018 at 15:55

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And here I was pissed off for having to pay $3.09 for super (93) today in the midwest

CarsofFortLangley - Oppo Forever > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 04/27/2018 at 15:56

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I already did the math, $5.33 is the price in USD. *** I suck at math, so if I did this wrong, don’t judge me to harshly. Convert for the USD per litre, then multiply by how many litres in a US gallon

benjrblant > CarsofFortLangley - Oppo Forever 04/27/2018 at 15:56

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Colorado, along with some other high-altitude areas sells 85/87/91 octane. Anything above 91 is hard to find unless you’re looking at a marina, racetrack, or aviation fuel.

Though there are a few shops here and there with 93.

CarsofFortLangley - Oppo Forever > benjrblant 04/27/2018 at 15:58

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that really sucks. I knew about the lack of high octane at altitude, but still

DipodomysDeserti > CarsofFortLangley - Oppo Forever 04/27/2018 at 15:59

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87 is around $2.60 in Phoenix right now. Our teachers are also on strike because our state has neglected to properly gund education for the last decade or so. Ya win some, ya lose some.

CarsofFortLangley - Oppo Forever > TeamPunkassRacing 04/27/2018 at 15:59

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yeah, you guys have it good. The rest of Canada has it good. Shit, the rest of my province has it good!!!

Eric @ opposite-lock.com > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 04/27/2018 at 16:00

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He is actually correct.

$1.809CAD = $1.41003USD

$1.41003USD * 3.785 = $5.33696355USD

But what he’s missing is that a large portion of the difference is taxes. We pay far lower gas taxes.

CarsofFortLangley - Oppo Forever > DipodomysDeserti 04/27/2018 at 16:01

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lol. I’d sacrifice my kids futures for some cheap gas at this point.

OPPOsaurus WRX > vicali 04/27/2018 at 16:02

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we used to stick plastic milk bottles behind the fork. the neighbors must have loved that

CarsofFortLangley - Oppo Forever > Eric @ opposite-lock.com 04/27/2018 at 16:03

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people who live one town over pay far less in gas. A 20 minute drive can save me 15 cents a litre or more!

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > Eric @ opposite-lock.com 04/27/2018 at 16:05

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Thanks. Conversion rates are great when they work in your favor!

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > CarsofFortLangley - Oppo Forever 04/27/2018 at 16:05

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My excuse: I’m a math teacher. Srsly.

benjrblant > CarsofFortLangley - Oppo Forever 04/27/2018 at 16:06

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It has to do with air pressure. If sea level is 1 atmosphere (14.7psi) another mile in elevation drops air pressure to 0.83atm or 12.2psi. Less intake pressure means less compression pressure so your air/fuel mix is less likely to predetonate or ping. Some n/a vehicles need 87 at sea level but run fine on 85 at this altitude. Some others not so much.

Eric @ opposite-lock.com > CarsofFortLangley - Oppo Forever 04/27/2018 at 16:30

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Similar, but smaller, differences can often be found at US stations. Hence GasBuddy.

Chariotoflove > CarsofFortLangley - Oppo Forever 04/27/2018 at 16:34

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I paid $2.66 last night. Yay freedom!

Seriously though, that sounds like a lot of taxation.

fintail > CarsofFortLangley - Oppo Forever 04/27/2018 at 16:39

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Does the Fort have a captive market of people who just don’t care?

Not sure when the last time 94 octane was sold south of the border.

CarsofFortLangley - Oppo Forever > fintail 04/27/2018 at 16:44

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All of Metro Vancouver is priced at this. Some people come down, some people go east to Abbotsford or Chilliwack. I have to go east, because I need high octane. Luckily the Ecoboost isn’t to thirsty

fintail > CarsofFortLangley - Oppo Forever 04/27/2018 at 16:45

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It’d be interesting to see a review of the time spent to get cheap gas vs savings, including the extra gas used to get to the cheap gas.

Highlander-Datsuns are Forever > CarsofFortLangley - Oppo Forever 04/27/2018 at 16:49

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Time to start mining tar sands again.

CarsofFortLangley - Oppo Forever > Highlander-Datsuns are Forever 04/27/2018 at 17:27

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We are!!

Manwich - now Keto-Friendly > CarsofFortLangley - Oppo Forever 04/27/2018 at 17:36

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That’s cheap compared to prices I saw when I was in Paris, France earlier this year.

I saw fuel at ~1.50 Euros per liter... or about CAD$2.40/L... or about US$7/gallon.

Cé hé sin > CarsofFortLangley - Oppo Forever 04/27/2018 at 17:40

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At the moment I’m paying about €1.41 per litre which comes to about USD6.52 per US gallon, so you’ll have to forgive my complete lack of sympathy.

CarsofFortLangley - Oppo Forever > Cé hé sin 04/27/2018 at 17:41

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I’m sure we’ll get there soon!

CarsofFortLangley - Oppo Forever > Cé hé sin 04/27/2018 at 17:43

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Forcasts call for $2+ for reg. that will make 94 ring in at around $2.30-$2.45. Well over euro pricing

gmctavish needs more space > fintail 04/27/2018 at 18:21

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Most of the people I know who get gas in the states go with like 4 jerry cans or so, otherwise it’s pretty much a wash depending on how bad your mileage is

DipodomysDeserti > CarsofFortLangley - Oppo Forever 04/27/2018 at 19:28

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That “gund” typo was accidental, but also very appropriate.

CarsofFortLangley - Oppo Forever > DipodomysDeserti 04/27/2018 at 19:35

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I wasn’t sure if it was a mistake or not...

That and the fact that O.C. the Tork Dorque, a math teacher, incorrectly called out my own math makes me concerned about the USA’s education system.

(kidding)

CarsofFortLangley - Oppo Forever > Eric @ opposite-lock.com 04/27/2018 at 19:37

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The “metro vancouver” region (where the higher gas taxes are) ends about 15km from me. It really highlights how arbitrary human borders are.

boxrocket > CarsofFortLangley - Oppo Forever 04/27/2018 at 21:20

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$2.68 for regular here in Missouri. Probably cheaper outside the major metro areas. $3.08 for “Super-Premium” (93 octane).

(internally chants “USA! USA! USA!” while hoping gas doesn’t soar)

fintail > gmctavish needs more space 04/27/2018 at 21:34

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Either I am incredibly lazy, or that’s still a very low ROI for the time and effort.

Spasoje > fintail 04/28/2018 at 15:48

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We get gas in the states, along w/ groceries. Our cost there is about $1/L, where it would otherwise be $1.50/L here. In terms of time, it takes just as long to buy the same groceries locally (the housing crisis has worsened traffic as well) at a higher price. Time cost = 0, average $ savings = 30%. Very much worth it.

Spasoje > Chariotoflove 04/28/2018 at 15:50

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Taxes are only ~17 cents a liter. It’s greed, not taxes! People here (by and large) are willing to pay high prices and not complain, and not just for gasoline...

fintail > Spasoje 04/28/2018 at 16:01

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Do you live in Aldergrove or Abby?

I suppose if you time it right, the border crossings aren’t bad - that’s the wild card.

That housing crisis is quickly moving here, and the traffic has long been a shitstorm.

Spasoje > fintail 04/28/2018 at 16:11

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No, but I do use one of those crossings. If you can stick to a time when it’s never busy, you’ll consistently wait less than 5min both going there and coming back.

Housing is ridiculous! Though this year might be a very eventful one, with a lot of common, detrimental practices becoming either heavily taxed or banned altogether. I wonder if that’s why you guys are seeing things get rapidly worse all of a sudden...

It’s probably been ten years since I’ve seen asking prices actually go down, or pre-sale condos not sell out, but that’s been the case so far since January. Should be interesting to follow.

fintail > Spasoje 04/28/2018 at 16:24

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The last time I crossed, I avoided either Blaine crossing, opting for Aldergrove (even though I have Nexus, the waits at Blaine were ~90 mins and I suspected the lines would block the Nexus lane). I forgot Nexus at Aldergrove is only northbound. D’oh. Still only 15-20 mins, but mildly irksome.

I find it funny that Canada prides itself (usually fairly) on a better measure of justice and equality, but has opened its doors to money laundering kleptocrats for many years, often embezzlers who essentially buy residency. It’s what I expect in Trumplandia, and they have indeed flooded here similar to the movement into the lower mainland 15 years ago (those fleeing HK in the 90s were tame by comparison). I hope the new taxes are more than the 15% nothingburger enacted not long ago, and that onerous taxes if not outright forfeiture are placed on vacant properties. And an ignored negative aspect of it is that it creates negative feelings for those of the same heritage who aren’t residency purchasing crooks.

The market is still insane here, I think I heard the majority of listings go for over asking, and in my anecdotal observation, anything decent is pending within a couple weeks. We don’t have the 15+:1 house price to income ratio of much of the lower mainland just yet, but it is coming close.

Spasoje > fintail 04/28/2018 at 18:01

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Funny thing about that cultural juxtaposition – whenever I go to WA, I feel like people are way more honest and genuine! It’s refreshing to spend some time in a place where people won’t bend over for free Timbits (not to mention free Chinese cash). Vancouverites have their heads so far in the sand, that million-dollar condos are a badge of honor, even for people who know they’ll never afford them.

When the Canucks lose the Stanley Cup finals? Hell yeah, THAT’S worth protesting!! Let’s burn half of downtown!! But when their mortgage payment is 75% of their monthly gross, or when there are no jobs because things are too expensive even for companies? Oh well , they say, as they sip their $6 Starbucks latte. That’s the cost of living in such a world-class, desirable city.

On the other hand, Toronto feels like a completely different country – it’s honestly shocking! I felt more of that justice and equality you mentioned after a week in Toronto, than after 20 years in Vancouver.

Now that I think about it, half the Canadian population lives between greater Toronto and Niagara Falls. If Toronto’s genuine, take-things-seriously approach is the norm in that whole area, I guess that would be why the world thinks all Canada is like that. I know I certainly did before we came here.

Interestingly, even those housing-cost-apologists might now be pressed up against the wall, given that the new prov. gov’t seems to actually be doing something (if it’s not all theater).

The foreign buyer’s tax is now 20%, and now covers way more territory than just the lower mainland. The forthcoming empty homes tax will increase noticeably after the first year of implementation, and effectively applies to anyone who doesn’t pay income taxes in BC (including people from other provinces, who have already complained). Property transfer tax has also increased on anything that’s $3m or over. On top of that, there are various rule changes in the works related to realtors, assignment sales, and even the regulatory bodies themselves.

Sorry to bore you with local problems, but I felt it was way too relevant not to share...

fintail > Spasoje 04/28/2018 at 18:36

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Are you primarily going to Bellingham or that region? I find a lot of real estate-related smug in the Seattle area. The “world class city” thing is something I have heard in defense of Vancouver’s market, too, and it is pretty amusing. Not to insult the place, as I have always enjoyed it, but it is a tier lower than Seattle (and Seattle isn’t exactly LA or SF), it is not a leader in any economic facet, it is a scenic city with corporate branches and a massive amount of real estate-based money laundering and pay for play immigration. No other factors there justify the market in the lower mainland other than imported dirty money and how it has caused others to panic and get in over their heads. Americans can dish out the fake nice as much as Canadians, but maybe not the fake (or real) deference or apology.

IMO, the offshore tax needs to be at least 50%, with severe penalties for vacant properties. Use the monies for affordable housing or for infrastructure, both of which Van and Seattle both need in a dire way. The same issues are cropping up in many areas around Seattle, and as of yet, there are no taxes or penalties for speculators and money launderers - as to be expected when the president himself is a corrupt kleptocrat, and his son of a conman son in law (of a conman) has actually gone to China to promote pay for play residency.

This doesn’t bore me at all, it is a legitimate problem that few have the courage to confront, as they know some will dish out the “xenophobe” or even “racist” slurs when someone dares to question the origin of offshore money.

Chariotoflove > Spasoje 04/28/2018 at 19:34

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Wow. When gas here started getting over $4, people started changing their habits to use less and even buy smaller cars.

Spasoje > fintail 04/29/2018 at 17:20

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You hit the nail on the head with the Vancouver description. In many ways, it’s still the anonymous fishing village it was before Expo. I have noticed some of that snobbery in Seattle, but the big-city aspect makes up for it – at least the snobbery is somewhat justified.

I would take it a step further and ban foreign ownership outright. Back in the eighties, the ‘vogue’ thing in Vancouver was to go to the Caribbean for vacation. People realized that they could just buy a house there for peanuts, and spend a couple weeks a year living like kings. Trouble is, they didn’t know foreign ownership of any property was banned there. When they asked why, the local authorities said allowing foreigners to buy property would take the market out of reach of the locals...

What that tells me is the gov’t here knew exactly what they were doing.

And yeah, the racism red herring gets thrown around a lot. Years ago, Vancouver’s mayor talked about how foreign investment is bad/displaces locals/etc. But then recently, he flip-flopped: he now says restricting foreign ownership would be racist. The painful irony is you have plenty of ethnically-Chinese people here who are priced out of the market like everyone else, and are also against Chinese nationals parking money here.

But why pay attention to them, when racism makes for a better headline...?

Spasoje > Chariotoflove 04/29/2018 at 17:23

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Yeah, people here lie to themselves a lot. ‘Being able to afford’ extortionate prices is a badge of honor...

On the other hand, buying gas in the states is fairly common, too. Save a third on your gas bill just by crossing the border!

fintail > Spasoje 04/29/2018 at 17:45

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Seattle has some real city support, and even then it is either just a key regional city or a second tier international city. The area has been an aerospace capital for a long time, and for the past 30 years or so, has been the second ranking software/IT mecca after Silicon Valley. Those combined with the burgeoning telecom and e-commerce industries give it clout that I don’t think Van can completely match - and Seattle doesn’t usually pretend to be a world city. If it isn’t, Van definitely isn’t. Funny, the old pre-2000 Vancouver is the one I loved when I was young, it was like a cleaner somewhat more refined and more progressive version of Seattle. Nowadays, I don’t have the same feelings.  

I’d have no problem banning foreign ownership too, along with auditing the sources of cash involved in purchases. This is where the “racism” whine falls apart. “Racism” is always the trump card of someone with nothing to stand on . Although Chinese kleptocrats are a main force in this, they are not the only factor, and it wouldn’t be directed against any specific nationality. No specific race is being targeted. I have a friend who was born in HK, and he says things about mainlanders that would offend the typical bleeding heart - if a Chinese guy says it, that’s enough for me. If this money is made in ways that would put a person in prison if made the same way here, it simply shouldn’t be allowed in. Audit this stuff, and no more residency for sale. It’s not like this region is underpopulated, and we already have plenty of rich people benefiting from regressive taxes.

Around here, many of the “no problem with offshore buyers” types are lucky generation members who bought when normal working people could afford a detached house, and don’t give a shit about those trying to settle down now. They are absolutely the worst demographic when it comes to self-awareness. These people who bought houses for 100K 30-35 years ago often have places worth well over 1MM (USD) now, it is ridiculous that they are even allowed to air an opinion on the subject.

Spasoje > fintail 04/30/2018 at 19:57

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The fact that Seattle is the bigger fish is clear in the job market, too. I know engineers, computer science guys, and business majors who have all left Vancouver because there simply isn’t enough of that kind of work here. And where did they go? Where else – Seattle, Silicon Valley, Toronto, and NYC.

I wonder if 90s Vancouver was more wholesome because people simply weren’t yet aware of the golden egg that is rich mainlanders. Would we be in the same place then, had all this instead started ~20 years ago?

There are some self-aware boomers here, but really only in the two or three neighborhoods that have become exclusive and particularly pricy in the past 5-10 years. In other words, the only reason they realize what’s going on is because their streets have become empty, and their property tax bills are five figures now. Even today, the vast majority of metro Van is spill-over-effect, middle-class neighborhoods – all of them are full of that oblivious, “this is great, I’m rich now” mentality.

BTW, have you heard how the fentanyl epidemic is tied to housing here?

fintail > Spasoje 04/30/2018 at 21:43

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Definitely, Seattle is where everyone wants to be, even with the cost of living, dreary winters, and cold social scene. I’ve read the city proper, not counting suburbs, gains about 35K per year lately - impressive for a place this size. I even work with a guy from Van, who hasn’t looked back (although he’s tired of the costs here too, and is thinking of cashing out and leaving).

The 90s had HK wealth fleeing due to handover fears, but other than their bland monster houses crowding into old neighborhoods, they were relatively discreet. Not criminal money launderers and gangsters unlike the current breed, not nearly as many shithead devilspawn flying around in supercars. I suspect things would be the same, and worse, had the newbies arrived then, and the authorities did nothing to address it. It has spread south too - a few Seattle suburbs and neighborhoods definitely have Vancouver syndrome, and I don’t mean that in a good way.

I’ll guess those lucky generation members there are in Point Grey and surrounding neighborhoods. They may be aware of their situation, but I suspect they have the same “I got mine, you can go to hell” mentality that I find here. I have no real pity for their tax bills as well - I suspect if they don’t qualify for relief, they can actually afford it. This is the last generation to be widely pensioned.

Yep, I have read of the link between drug distribution cartels and money flowing into Van being parked in real estate. Shipping over drugs as well as blood money, nice - I suspect Canada might have even less vetting than the US, and that’s saying something. There’s been something more minor but similar here - Chinese nationals buying up housing in cheaper distant areas, and using it for grow ops, the pot being sent back east where it isn’t yet legal. I think several dozen were busted not long ago.

Spasoje > fintail 05/01/2018 at 03:05

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It’s just as much the cartels, as it is the gov’t allowing it to happen. That speaks volumes about vetting, or lack thereof. The drugs get made in China, but are sold here – that cash is loaned to Lambo-driving, property-rich playboys, who either pay the ‘lender’ back in China (so no money crosses any borders), or squander it all at the slots. If the latter happens, the ‘lender’ forecloses and get a court-ordered sale. Nobody questions where the druglords got the money to loan out (often at illegally-high interest rates) to begin with, plus the Canadian legal system washes all that cash squeaky clean.

But yeah, it was indeed Point Grey/Arbutus/etc. Those who haven’t moved way, way out East yet are the ones complaining. In a way, though, complaining about a tax bill on a house you inherited is just a more subtle form of “I got mine, you can go to hell” – they’re literally sitting on free money, which can be reinvested to more than cover that tax bill... Many would kill to be in a situation like that.

fintail > Spasoje 05/01/2018 at 09:43

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Yes, I point the same blame here, it isn’t just the dirty money holders, but the governments who allow it. One might expect it from the corrupt gong show currently in power in Murka, but it also existed with the prior regime, and seems to be even worse in Canada (and England, and Oz, etc) - which prides itself on peace and justice. Funny how that works. Policies which amount to pay for play residency need to be repealed. There’s never any real vetting of the origin of the funds.

Yeah, inheriting it is even worse than having bought it for 100K 35 years ago, and even then, the latter group often receive endless help or inheritance from their depression-era saver parents. Another situation of no self-awareness. They’d never be able to hack it if they had to start out as a younger person today. They give no sympathies to those stuck in the current market where they will never be able to afford anything, hard to give sympathy back when the tax bill becomes due.

Spasoje > fintail 05/02/2018 at 02:57

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I suspect this sort of thing wouldn’t last this long in the states, since they know people would put up a fight. While the US was throwing tea crates into the river and fighting independence wars, Canada was trading fur... Hell, Canada didn’t even have its own flag until 50 years ago! This whole practice of not fighting for your own because it’s impolite towards the other guy is a nice, warm petri dish for the greedy and corrupt to thrive in.

If nothing else, Canada killed the foreign investor visa program in 2014, so there’s that...but that could easily be a case of too little, too late.

Also, allegedly this generation is the first that’s projected to be less well-off than their parents. And with rampant underemployment, stratospheric housing costs, and the resulting mental consequences of it all, I’m not surprised. And yeah, boomers would likely buckle under all that pressure – their obliviousness alone is enough of a giveaway there.

fintail > Spasoje 05/02/2018 at 09:32

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I don’t know - Jared, son of a conman son in law of a conman beneficiary of nepotism, was actually in China hawking the “investor visa” program to well-connected party members and their kin. I think governments are very tolerant of it, no matter the blind deference of the populace. It brings money in, and for most of history, money is the goal no matter its origin. I do think in more submissive areas like those in what was the old empire, the general populace will question it less. But in dumbed down areas (like much of Murka), nobody will even know about it unless the media has the guts to cover it. Two sides of the same disaster - aware but afraid to say a word, or in the dark.

Are there new ways residency is for sale of an investor visa program is coming in? How are the kleptocrats gaining access? 4 years is a while, and the housing market hasn’t really cooled in the lower mainland. Looking at average incomes, it’s definitely not via local demand.

In terms of stability, and retirement asset appreciation, I think the current younger adult generation will generally be worse off. Pensions mostly exist just for the public sector, home ownership is unattainable for most without family help, wages haven’t kept pace with CPI, and the rest you mention - not to mention the cost of education and healthcare. Yet some think they built it all themselves, rather than having been the beneficiaries of good timing on many fronts.

Spasoje > fintail 05/02/2018 at 16:06

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There is some sort of replacement to the investor visa program, but it’s allegedly not that lucrative, i.e. the take rate is almost nothing. The thing is, though, not that many rich money launderers are products of the program: a huge number have never actually set foot on Canadian soil...

Many properties here are marketed (sometimes only) on Chinese websites catering to the super rich, who want to get their cash out of China. They purchase them through middlemen here, since there is zero vetting when buying property. Besides their impact on the market, this is how we get so many dilapidated, abandoned houses in expensive neighborhoods... The owners never visit the houses, nor does anybody else – all they were bought to do is sit there and appreciate.

You make a good point about aware but afraid to say a word, and being in the dark. Thinking about it, it’s precisely the latter that makes all those regime changes in foreign countries possible. During the Vietnam war, people knew what was going on and protested vehemently – the gov’t clearly realized the only way to keep doing stuff like that was to simply not tell people, or straight up lie to them. The same could happen with a wave of ‘offshore investors’.

fintail > Spasoje 05/02/2018 at 21:43

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I am surprised they appear to be staying home - because of the danger that a certain place will finally crack down on corruption, and by the volume of people who appear to fit the stereotype in Van and Richmond. Or maybe they are all coming to Seattle. If anything, it all sounds like solid justification for a sharp tax on idle housing - maybe half the market value of the house, or more, per year. Have fun with that 1MM++ tax bill. And if they don’t pay, they forfeit. Might be a fun way to take back a little money, as there’s been such a one way transfer, much of it via sketchy or downright dirty IP practices.

There’s huge fear of appearing racist on this subject (although no particular race is being targeted), or more generically, a ‘xenophobe’. In these reactionary times, I think it stops many people and media outlets both from saying more about this situation. And definitely, it could be a post-Vietnam strategy of simply keeping people in the dark, maybe they won’t wonder why a house that cost 3x salary in 1985 now costs 15x an equivalent salary.

Spasoje > fintail 05/03/2018 at 02:56

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It seems as if they just want to get their cash out before the Chinese gov’t can do something about it (which has recently started). But apart from that, all those factories won’t run themselves... OTOH, many send their wife and kids here, to get an education and sign the land title docs. As a result, lots of homes worth (let’s say) $10 mil are legally owned by a homemaker/student who declares less than $11k a year (which is the minimum you have to make in order to pay income tax), and drives a wrapped Lambo with an N sign on the back.

There was a short documentary following these rich kids living in Vancouver off their parents’ vast wealth. The gist of it was, they love Vancouver because (1) people here will do anything for money, and (2) they can flaunt their wealth w/o the restrictions they have in China.

It’s funny how those calling everything racist are also those who never experienced racism to begin with... Each money’d foreigner could come from a completely different country – or even just from a different province – and we’d still have the same problem. It’s a shame more people don’t realize that crying “racism” is simply drawing a curtain, to hide whom of the locals are all in on it – that is to say, to hide the real reason why they won’t take the drastic action they ought to.

I read that out of the 13 members of the former provincial gov’t (which was voted out last year), 11 had significant investments in real estate! Plus, two or three of the major Canadian banks are directly involved, with “foreign income” programs (often advertised only through Chinese-language ads) that grant you a mortgage with just a downpayment. Getting a mortgage as a tax-paying resident is 10x more difficult.

It all comes back to people that either know but don’t dare to talk, or are in the dark entirely...

fintail > Spasoje 05/03/2018 at 10:05

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I think the axe has to fall there eventually. One big economic downturn, and they will be going after the embezzlers - and I think they have capital punishment for financial crimes. The “student” game is played here too - 19 year olds living alone in desirable houses, and the parking lots at schools have awfully fancy rides for unemployed ESL majors. If only flaunting that wealth would be like doing so in Paris, 1789 or Moscow 1917.

I couldn’t care less where dirty money comes from - that it is allowed into this system is what draws ire. We are supposed to be about “vetting”, about justice and ethics, yet this is allowed to greatly hinder if not destroy the ability for generations to actually own their residence. It’s insane. I think it’s the “I got mine, to hell with you” mentality of a key demographic or two, along with public sector types and the realtor/finance cabal making fortunes from it. As I like to joke, governments don’t control banks, it’s the other way around. I have no doubt if a restriction or ban on offshore buyers and pay for play residency was enacted, the key lobbyists against it would be from finance, insurance, and real estate. They’d probably play up the “race” ideal too.

In a way, some of the situations in certain Vancouver and Seattle areas is mildly reminiscent of Shanghai in 1935, but reversed, and driven by different factors. It ends up with the same bizarre type of colonization.

Spasoje > fintail 05/04/2018 at 03:13

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Yep, that’s exactly who makes the whole thing turn: realtors, developers, ‘investors’ (both foreign launderers and the few domestic ones with enough funds) and, to a lesser extent, banks. It’s all insider trading. New condos get built – they’ve been sprouting like mushrooms, often in places where the infrastructure has no hope in supporting that many new residents – and the sales contracts get flipped for five or six figure profits by people who got access before the promo website was even finalized... These contracts are often resold multiple times, tax-free, before the building is even finished. This part of the market alone is big enough to mess all real estate prices up... Were the axe to fall, it would cut the guy holding it as deeply as the guy beneath it.

That said, it’s not like there’s no precedence for Canada to live out its own 2008: this growth is unsustainable by all definitions. Plus, household debt levels have become very crippling as a result, and the central bank has been warning about this for years. It’s clear to them at least, that there’s only one way out. The problem is, the only thing that their ‘soft-landing’ efforts (raising rates and mortgage standards) have achieved is taking locals out of the market completely. Might work for debt ratios, but maybe won’t work so well for solving the underlying problem...

I agree, though: at the end of the day, the fault lies with those who let this dirty money in to begin with. Many people immigrated to Canada/the States specifically to escape this sort of corruption! Iceland locked up all these insider-trading bastards as soon as they found out what was going on, and completely re-built their system to actually, y’ know, work... Perhaps we can hope for the same thing here, if Vancouver gets its own renaissance/revolution – because it desperately needs it.

fintail > Spasoje 05/04/2018 at 09:53

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Condo highrises are a funny thing. They aren’t nearly as common in the Puget Sound area yet, as I think zoning can be a bit regressive, especially in Seattle proper. But the ones that are built can be curious - they are eventually “sold out”, but years after reaching such status, one can examine the building on clear days or at night, and it is obvious half the units are unoccupied. This is another place for a punitive tax on idle properties. At best, it is market manipulation, by artificially controlling supply. I wonder how many properties are owned by the average holder of a vacant unit - I bet it is a lot more than one.

I’ve sometimes joked that Canada lags the US by around a decade, at least politically. The US being larger, will fall harder, but there’s definitely a risk of a real estate crash, and I don’t think the government would be able to cure it. Maybe Canada’s 2008 is still ahead. One big slowdown - maybe a bad cold caught if your neighbor to the south sneezes, combined with those debt levels, could push people over the edge. Or maybe there’s enough unvetted foreign money to keep it going even if local demand effectively vanishes. I wouldn’t bet on it, however. When a decent income is 80K, a house is 3MM, and a condo is 700K, it can’t last forever.

The finance, insurance, and real estate industries bought these policies, and now we all get to deal with it, while they reap profits that are hard to justify. I also find it amusing how so many connected to real estate will drone on about small government and doing things yourself, when their entire industry is directly connected to government largesse - via loan guarantees, subsidies, and dumb policies like the American mortgage interest tax deduction. I’m not holding my breath on that massive change, I think the entire economic landscape would have to get bleak before anyone is held accountable. That being said, who knows what the future can bring.

Spasoje > fintail 05/06/2018 at 16:08

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It’s really common for property holders to own anywhere between two and ten units per building. It’s almost always either realtors who the developer has a tie to, or foreigners whom those same realtors bring in as high-value clients. Vancouver has reached the point where literally every building is as you described. My friend tells me his parents are the only people on their entire floor, and they’re not even in a desirable part of town!

I agree – it can’t last forever! We’ll have to get to the point when there are simply no more cows to milk, especially since the main drivers of all this chaos don’t seem to realize you always need to diversify. My guess is that China’s increased scrutiny, in an environment where things here are getting stricter, will end up being the drop that overfills the glass. But yeah, we’ll see...

I gotta say, tax-deductible mortgage interest sounds pretty good right now (Canada only lets you write that off from properties you’re renting out). It would be a good excuse for banks to keep rates high, but then, that’s what they’re doing right now to try and combat the current problems anyway...

fintail > Spasoje 05/06/2018 at 23:04

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No doubt it is the same situation here. With the speed these places “sell out”, yet appear to be vacant, there’s no other way to explain it. As most of these units are far cheaper than houses, they might be attractive for that, too. All it takes is 500K to buy residency here, and you won’t buy a house with that in my area. Another situation that justifies sharp penalties for vacant properties.

Although China isn’t the only player in this, here and there it is probably 75% or more when it comes to offshore buyers, and when they can make up half of buyers, what happens there will determine the fate of local markets. It’d be interesting to see what would happen if the central government there cracked down on embezzlers and those shipping money out of the country. These are the same people who faced harsh penalties in the past.

The mortgage interest deduction irks me - I see it as more of a renter penalty, and a masked subsidy to the mortgage industry pretending to be a gift to the working man. I’ve had benefit from it too, but it is something that exists nowhere else in the world (as far as I know), and the first world places don’t have the socio-economic issues seen here. Almost like forcing a housing-dependent economy causes chaos. Giving a deduction to rental property is even weirder - seems to encourage more speculation.

Spasoje > fintail 05/10/2018 at 14:23

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In Vancouver, they’re either vastly more powerful than any other foreign players, or they’re at least 90% of them... Every investigation that comes out has only Chinese names, including the local realtors involved! But yeah, it would be very interesting to see if China cracks down, especially since they don’t exactly have a track record of letting people off easy...

You could also argue that no interest tax deduction takes the incentive out of ownership. Let’s say that almost all automakers start making their cars break expensively once they’re out of warranty, encouraging/forcing the vast majority to lease. In the end, customers are worse off because they’ll never stop making lease payments (instead of buying a car and keeping it long-term), but automakers are swimming in perpetual cash. Bringing it back to housing, not having that tax incentive makes property ownership much less attractive, leaving the rental properties (and that perpetual income) in control of a few players.

Though no matter which side you choose, some back-end player is gonna be subsidized, be it the banks (in the case of the tax deduction) or rental property owners (in the case of no deduction).

fintail > Spasoje 05/11/2018 at 11:33

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I think it is mostly similar here - housing sales records are public record, and even when under a LLC or trust, one can see who is connected to the entity. We also get a little Indian and Russian money, which may be marginally less sketchy. Also a funny sign when listings have numerous “8"s in the price - if I was Chinese, I’d be insulted at such shallow pandering, but apparently it works. I’ve noticed Vancouver real estate ads in very poor English, too - there’s another one, when the real listing probably isn’t in English at all.

For the US policy of owner-based tax breaks, I think it is bizarre, and Europeans I know shake their heads (as housing ownership seems to be an English speaking world obsession, aside from China) I think interest-based subsidies just create price inflation and encourage people to buy more than they can realistically afford. Americans like to live on the edge, and will budget the tax break into their potential mortgage. In cities where normal working people can’t afford to buy, this is regressive tax policy. Canadian policy of subsidizing rental buyers also encourages speculation, and is regressive. As someone who can round up their income to 6 figures yet still can’t afford more than a shoebox and has no real hope of buying a detached house within a reasonable commute, it is hard to support - and I don’t see why I should get a break while someone with half my income shouldn’t.

I think western European economies, which lack this tax policy and obsession with houses, renovations, and flipping, are healthier for it.

Spasoje > fintail 05/14/2018 at 03:42

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If the lack of content in the listing doesn’t give it away, all the eights certainly do!

Now that you mention it, the US tax deduction and the super-low interest rates we (in a way, still) have, are one and the same: the inflation, and people buying more than they can afford, are both things that are happening here. Even the whole living on the edge thing is the new reality. Though, that may be more because people here are incredibly stubborn about not changing their habits at all (which, of course, have become much more expensive, without a paycheck to match)... Even so, that’s just a different means to the same end.

Funny thing about Europe – I just heard about a current case in Berlin where people are being pushed out of an apartment block (via crippling rent increases) so that Google can have a new HQ there. OTOH, Germany is handling its housing bubble (urban supply shortage) much more responsibly than Canada is, at least based on some quick reading. They even have well-established tax rules incentivizing long-term property investment over short-term speculation. Could certainly use some of those here.

fintail > Spasoje 05/14/2018 at 13:50

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The 8s are hilarious - do they think nobody else recognizes it? Or maybe they don’t care - it is an untouchable demographic operating in a void of accountability. Seattle is now being roiled by a debate about a goofy head tax to help with the homeless crisis - taxing offshore real estate purchases and using the money for that seems a lot more just.

If one can only afford the house with the undeserved tax break, they can’t afford the house. I notice there’s a uniquely Canadian living on the edge factor - the rental suite. It is still quite rare to need a stranger living in your basement to be able to pay your mortgage here, but I notice in BC, it is just a normal fact of life. That’s another one - if you need to operate a defacto rooming house to pay the mortgage, you can’t afford it. I suspect Americans are much more willing to take on debt, although Canadians are probably catching up.

From my anecdotal observations, rents in German urban areas are much less than in NA - and they don’t have the weird renter stigma that has permeated North American culture, likely due to media propaganda (when news channels are telling people now’s the time to buy, you know this isn’t a legit free market) and undeserved tax breaks. Maybe an onerous tax on house flipping would be another way to at least slightly calm things down. Sell within 3 or 5 years without ever having lived in the house, and 90% of your profits aren’t yours. Have fun with that!

Spasoje > fintail 05/16/2018 at 18:43

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I’m certain they just don’t care... I’m actually impressed by that Seattle tax idea, though: they’re both acting early and (at least promising to) put that money where it’s needed. If nothing else, it’s way better than anything put in place here thus far.

Canadian debt is definitely catching up, if it hasn’t already! Rental suites have been a thing for as long as I can remember. I don’t think I know anyone with a rental suite that could afford their mortgage without it. Personally, I’d never do it – you shouldn’t have to count on that to be able to afford your house. Plus, having some random guy living in your basement is just weird, and is a huge risk in many ways.

Onerous house flipping taxes is exactly what Germany has! If you haven’t owned the property for at least 10 years (and it isn’t your primary residence), there’s huge taxes on the profits. They were also smart enough to implement something like this before the gov’t (and their financial backers) got rich off of property speculation...but then, Europe tends to be much, much less greedy as a whole.

I’m reminded of a Warren Buffet quote: sell right before the peak – you can cash out nicely, while finding a patsy to eat the drop in value.

Back when housing was getting expensive, but was still half of what it is now, nobody made a peep (publicly) about it being the right time to buy, which it was. Now that we may have reached the end of the cycle, you have people telling you left and right to buy now, “before it gets even more expensive...” The people who can fix the problem absolutely don’t want to, but realize they have to. So they’re probably looking for fools to buy the junk assets before they become junk assets.

fintail > Spasoje 05/16/2018 at 22:31

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I think the Seattle tax is a case of good intentions, but we all know how that can go. The city of Seattle as an entity is notoriously inefficient in dealing with public funds, and has a history of sometimes outright corruption. I’d rather it be a tax on real estate-based investors, even if some of the corporations aren’t the best neighbors. Something needs to be done for affordable housing both in Seattle and Vancouver, and the corporate citizens aren’t being very good about it.

I’d have no desire to rent out my basement to a stranger, either. I’ll keep my concrete shoebox rather than deal with the risk and drama. That kind of development is pretty rare around Seattle, and the up/down duplex “Vancouver Special” is almost unknown as well. Condo highrises are also less common, but that will be changing soon - especially on the “luxury” (read: escape route for offshore embezzler who purchases residency) front, where marginally nicer finishes net double the prices for the developer who is in on the con. And with the worst president ever now apparently taking bribes from Jinping, I expect the flood to continue.

I think sometimes capital gains can apply like the German model, but I don’t think there is anything specific. Sometimes special financing forbids a flip, but that’s it. I know people in Germany and Switzerland, and they aren’t nearly as into real estate as most of my friends here. The Germans in particular, who live in cities, just don’t care. They’d rather use their money to travel, eat out, buy nice clothes, etc. Who has the better quality of life? It isn’t most of North America. As this continent goes, we probably live in the best part. At least some of it.

I’d have endless schadenfreude if local housing markets collapsed, but I can’t imagine it being significant - there’s just too much net in-migration. Seattle alone is gaining something like 35-40K people per year, and the suburbs are likely similar. It might be different in Van, but maybe not much. All it takes is a critical mass to buy into the hype.

Spasoje > fintail 05/19/2018 at 04:14

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Any profit not made on one’s principal residence is already subject to capital gains tax in Canada. However, this hasn’t actually been legally enforceable! This whole time, there were zero consequences from making crazy profits flipping condo contracts, without reporting a single dollar, simply because the developers were the only ones holding the financial records. This was something the foreign embezzlers knew ahead of time.

As much as I, too, would love to see a dramatic collapse, all predictions worth a damn call for a gradual, drawn-out decline. But in Vancouver’s case, this isn’t due to positive net in-migration – we actually have a labor shortage! Way too many people (even those in the trades!) have jumped ship for somewhere more affordable and/or with more job opportunities. Living in a van is quickly becoming the new “Vancouver Special,” yet it seems a sizeable-enough chunk of people would rather leave than do that...

Europe has a vastly better quality of life (quite the segue, no?) ! It’s just like you said: people’s priority is enjoying the good things in life over saving for a downpayment, and society is healthier for it. While I’m all for home ownership, it’s better to rent and enjoy life, than to literally give up two decades’ worth of experiences just to own some crappy house.

fintail > Spasoje 05/20/2018 at 13:36

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Do they even really keep track of that for taxation or anything? Real estate transactions aren’t public record there, right? I don’t understand that - it’s a virtual admission people have something to hide. Something the embezzlers knew, indeed - almost like they have an “in” with policymakers.

The problem with declines is that they won’t offset the past 10-15 years of gains. If something triples and then loses 30%, it will still likely be unattainable. Thinking more about it, I don’t know if population trends matter as much in terms of property values - as normal working people can’t afford to buy anyway. In-migration of residency purchasers is probably more realistic, and nobody likes to talk about that, lest they be branded a xenophobe, or worst, a “racist”. Yeah, what race are people who steal money at home and take advantage of out lax and stupid immigration laws? Probably all races.

I am often thankful I am single and don’t have pressure to get in over my head. I look at a residence as primarily a place to sleep, and keep my things dry. I can’t imagine sacrificing for 30 years for something larger, when at the end you might not be able to afford to hold on to it anyway.

Spasoje > fintail 05/21/2018 at 22:17

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Nope, they really don’t keep track at all! It’s effectively the honor system. That said, they’re going to start tracking things later this year, but that might only be limited to assignment sales. The CRA has recently started cracking down on suspiciously low reported incomes in the most expensive postal codes, too. Can’t say I’m optimistic about this death-of-a-thousand-cuts approach, but it ought to do at least something...

Yeah, prices have grown wildly out of reach many times over, such that a decline would be a consolidation prize at best. People who already own would then be able to afford a step up to a larger property – something that’s impossible at the moment – but the problem would still remain.

It’s exactly the offshore rich guys who are controlling the market. However, the sad irony is that the real cause of it all, the Canadians in power who let this happen (who also have the shamelessness of using the racism card as a defense), are as white as they come! Painful hypocrisy.

A prediction I’ve heard very often is that if prices don’t correct enough, Vancouver will turn into a sort of ghost resort town. All people and industries will leave, save for those that directly serve the wealthy mainlanders (i.e. restaurants, hotels, real estate agencies, high-end car dealers, etc.). TBH, I could easily see this happening – we’re right at the make-or-break point for this theory.

fintail > Spasoje 05/22/2018 at 09:32

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I don’t know if contract sales are tracked here either, but actual sales are, and are public record. If your house sells, I can find out about it, and some municipalities even keep historical data, so if you want to see what a lucky one paid for the house in 1987, it is easy to find. Canada doesn’t have anything like that, I believe, and I have to wonder why. I’d be very interested to see what is done about the low incomes - don’t hold your breath. Industries connected to housing control policy, not the other way around.

One risk may be if the newly arrived money finds reason to play in the lower end of the market. That has started to happen here for a particularly nefarious reason, and this is just one case of dozens busted in WA in the past year:

https://www.kentreporter.com/news/raids-made-on-multiple-illegal-grow-houses-in-investigation-of-international-money-laundering-and-interstate-marijuana-trafficking/

Pricey properties sell to the well-connected party members seeking an out, cheaper stuff goes to grow op cartels. Normal working people continue to be priced out.

I suspect many or most of those in power who enable the mess are those who bought in when it was possible to not be rich and to own a house (and the rest will inherit something). They don’t want to lose that winning lottery ticket, and they will harm younger groups in order to keep their relatively ill-gotten gains.

Ghost resort town, like Whistler without snow. Endless hilariously expensive and usually empty housing, and a usually not highly paid service industry around it. Sounds kind of like Manhattan, which has devolved into a tourist trap and home to the rich and very rich alike. Funny thing is, neither Van nor Seattle are in the same league in terms of relevance.

Spasoje > fintail 05/24/2018 at 01:02

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Interesting how the drug connection differs so much between Vancouver and Seattle. We’ve got guys shipping fentanyl in and issuing predatory loans with the proceeds, which are washed clean in the process:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/globe-investigation-into-money-laundering-in-bc-real-estate-will-lead-to-new-rules-ag-says/article38018921/

Wouldn’t be at all surprised if the cheaper abandoned houses I see around here turned out to be grow-ops, too. Plus, it’s not like that wasn’t unheard of in Vancouver already – basements here have historically been either rented out or grow-ops! (haha)

Canada, or at least BC, doesn’t have anything close to what you guys have. Over here, all that’s public record are the current assessed value, and any selling prices within the past three years. Can’t say I’m expecting anything groundbreaking from the CRA investigations – they haven’t ever gone this far before, so who knows what’ll come of it. Still, to have them wake up like this is like a ray of sunlight through the PNW’s notoriously gray clouds... At the same time, it’s embarrassing how a supposedly advanced western country is oblivious to such an elementary thing (or, perhaps all the world’s worst crooks actually live here).

The real estate crisis is deeply intertwined in BC’s current political climate, but not just in the sense that the industries call the shots. Those in power who enabled the mess did in fact gain industry backers, and they did buy before it all started, fully knowing what they were doing. However, that’s also why they’re no longer in charge...

Trouble is, the new guys in charge (vocally opposed to the back-end shenanigans) didn’t get quite enough votes to form a majority, so they had to join forces with a small, greenpeace-type party to form a majority government. So in order to maintain control, they have to appease the greenpeacers (who want affordable prices and no crude oil pipeline). Of course, they can’t fix it too well, since that’ll make them some powerful enemies.

I’ve read that the illicit money is expected to flow into commercial real estate instead. Perhaps the new gov’t will clean up residential real estate, so they maintain power and satisfy their voters, but turn a blind eye to commercial real estate, so their powerful enemies can keep that lottery ticket.